# What Is the Number One Predictor of Divorce? Researchers have spent decades trying to understand why some marriages survive difficult times while others fall apart. If you're worried about your own relationship, or trying to make sense of a marriage that's already ending, you might wonder whether there are warning signs that reliably predict divorce. The short answer is yes, certain patterns are strongly associated with relationship breakdown. In decades of observational research by psychologist Dr. John Gottman and his colleagues at the Gottman Institute, one behaviour stood out as a particularly strong predictor of divorce: contempt. This article explores what contempt looks like in relationships, why it's so damaging, and what the research tells us about other patterns that predict divorce. Whether you're hoping to repair your marriage or simply trying to understand what went wrong, this information can offer some clarity. ## What Is Contempt? Contempt is more than just disagreement or even anger. It's a form of communication that expresses disgust, superiority, or disrespect toward your partner. When you treat your spouse with contempt, you're communicating that you see them as beneath you, as someone unworthy of basic respect. Contempt can show up in many ways. Eye-rolling during conversations. Sarcasm and mockery. Sneering or using a dismissive tone. Name-calling or insults. Hostile humour at your partner's expense. Correcting them in front of others in a way designed to embarrass. Speaking about them to others with disgust or disdain. What makes contempt different from other negative behaviours is the element of superiority. When you criticize your partner, you're expressing displeasure with something they did. When you treat them with contempt, you're expressing that they are fundamentally flawed or worthless as a person. It attacks their sense of self rather than addressing a specific behaviour or issue. ## Why Is Contempt So Destructive? Gottman's research identified contempt as the most damaging of the negative communication patterns he studied. Couples who regularly express contempt toward each other are significantly more likely to separate than couples who don't, even if those other couples argue frequently. There are several reasons contempt is so damaging. **It erodes the foundation of respect.** Healthy relationships require mutual respect, even during disagreements. Contempt systematically destroys that respect. Once partners begin seeing each other as worthy of disgust rather than consideration, it becomes very difficult to work through problems together. **It makes repair nearly impossible.** After arguments, healthy couples find ways to reconnect and repair the relationship. Contempt makes this much harder. When you've been treated as inferior or disgusting, it's difficult to feel safe enough to be vulnerable and reconnect. **It escalates over time.** Contempt tends to breed more contempt. When one partner responds to conflict with eye-rolling or mockery, the other is likely to become defensive or contemptuous in return. This creates a negative cycle that deepens over time. **It affects physical health.** Research has linked high-conflict and hostile marital interactions with measurable changes in immune function and health outcomes. Chronic relationship stress can take a physical toll, affecting overall wellbeing beyond just the emotional impact. ## The Four Horsemen of Relationship Breakdown Contempt doesn't usually exist in isolation. Gottman identified four communication patterns that, when they become habitual, are associated with a much higher risk of divorce. He called these the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" for relationships. **Criticism** involves attacking your partner's character rather than addressing a specific behaviour. There's a difference between "I was upset that you didn't call when you were running late" (a complaint about behaviour) and "You never think about anyone but yourself" (a criticism of character). Occasional complaints are normal in relationships. Chronic criticism that frames your partner as fundamentally flawed is destructive. **Contempt**, as discussed, is the most damaging pattern. It communicates disgust and superiority. **Defensiveness** is a natural response to criticism, but it makes problems worse. When you respond to your partner's concerns by making excuses, denying responsibility, or counter-attacking with your own complaints, you're telling them their concerns don't matter. This blocks resolution and escalates conflict. **Stonewalling** happens when one partner withdraws from the interaction entirely. They might physically leave, go silent, or simply tune out. While this is often a response to feeling overwhelmed, it sends a message that the relationship isn't worth engaging with. The partner who is stonewalled often feels abandoned and may escalate their attempts to get a response, making things worse. These patterns tend to appear together and reinforce each other. Criticism provokes defensiveness. Defensiveness leads to more criticism. When this cycle becomes entrenched, contempt often develops. Eventually, one or both partners may begin stonewalling to escape the constant negativity. ## Other Factors That Predict Divorce While communication patterns like the Four Horsemen are among the strongest predictors researchers have identified, other factors are also associated with higher divorce rates. **Marrying very young.** Couples who marry in their teens or early twenties have higher divorce rates than those who marry later, though this doesn't mean early marriages can't succeed. **Lower income and education levels.** Financial stress is associated with higher divorce rates, as are lower levels of education. This likely reflects the strain that financial insecurity places on relationships rather than anything inherent about the people involved. **Parental divorce.** People whose parents divorced are somewhat more likely to divorce themselves. This may reflect learned relationship patterns, different attitudes toward divorce, or other factors. **Premarital cohabitation in some circumstances.** The research here is nuanced. Earlier studies suggested that living together before marriage was associated with higher divorce rates. More recent research suggests this association has weakened considerably and varies by cohort and the level of commitment at the time of moving in together. **Short courtship before marriage.** Couples who marry after knowing each other for a very short time may not have had enough opportunity to assess compatibility or see how they handle conflict together. **Significant differences in values or goals.** Disagreements about fundamental issues like whether to have children, religious practices, or how to manage money can create ongoing friction that wears on the relationship over time. **Previous divorces.** Second and subsequent marriages have higher divorce rates than first marriages, though many remarriages do succeed. It's worth noting that these are statistical associations, not certainties. Many couples with multiple risk factors build lasting marriages, while some couples with none of these factors still divorce. Predictors identify patterns across large groups, not destinies for individual couples. ## Can Relationships Recover from These Patterns? If you recognize contempt or other destructive patterns in your relationship, you might wonder whether it's too late. The answer depends on many factors, including whether both partners want to change and are willing to do the work. Gottman's research suggests that couples can learn healthier communication patterns, even after years of negative habits. The key elements typically include recognizing the destructive patterns when they occur, taking responsibility for your own contributions to the dynamic, learning and practicing different ways to communicate during conflict, building positive interactions and appreciation to counterbalance negativity, and often working with a couples therapist who can help you develop new skills. However, change requires genuine commitment from both partners. One person cannot fix a relationship pattern alone. If your spouse is unwilling to acknowledge the problem or work on the relationship, your options become more limited. Some couples find that recognizing these patterns helps them make a decision about their marriage. The patterns may explain why the relationship feels so painful, and sometimes that understanding helps people accept that ending the marriage is the healthiest choice. Others use the awareness as motivation to change. ## When the Marriage Is Already Ending If you're reading this because your marriage is already falling apart or you've decided to separate, understanding these patterns can still be valuable. **It can help you make sense of what happened.** Divorce often leaves people wondering what went wrong or whether they could have done something differently. Recognizing that specific, identifiable communication patterns contributed to the breakdown can provide some clarity. **It can inform how you handle the divorce process.** The same patterns that damaged your marriage can make divorce harder if you let them continue. Contempt toward your ex during separation negotiations, defensive responses to reasonable requests, or stonewalling on important decisions all make the process more painful and expensive. Recognizing these tendencies in yourself can help you approach the divorce more constructively. **It can help with co-parenting.** If you have children, you'll continue to interact with your ex for years. Learning to communicate without contempt, defensiveness, or stonewalling will benefit your children and make co-parenting easier. **It can inform future relationships.** Understanding what went wrong in your marriage can help you approach future relationships differently. Many people find that they bring patterns from their family of origin or past relationships into new partnerships. Awareness of these patterns creates the opportunity to change them. ## Moving Forward If you're trying to decide whether your marriage can be saved, consider speaking with a couples therapist who can assess your specific situation. If you've already decided to separate, resources like a [divorce coach](/blog/do-i-need-a-divorce-coach) can help you navigate the process while managing the emotional challenges. For those beginning the separation process in Ontario, understanding your options is important. You might explore [mediation](/blog/how-to-choose-a-divorce-mediator-in-ontario) as a way to resolve issues without the conflict of litigation, particularly if you can communicate with your spouse without falling into destructive patterns. [Collaborative divorce](/blog/uncontested-vs-contested-divorce-difference) is another option for couples who want to minimize conflict. If communication has broken down entirely, or if there are safety concerns, you may need more structured approaches. Speaking with a [family law lawyer](/blog/how-to-choose-a-divorce-lawyer-in-ontario) can help you understand your rights and options for [property division](/blog/dividing-property-ontario-separation-divorce), [parenting arrangements](/blog/custody-vs-access-decision-making-parenting-time), and [support](/blog/child-support-ontario-how-calculator-works). Whatever path you take, remember that recognizing unhealthy patterns is the first step toward changing them, whether that means rebuilding your current relationship or approaching future relationships differently. ## Key Takeaways **Contempt is one of the strongest predictors of divorce.** In Gottman's research, expressing disgust and superiority toward your partner stood out as particularly damaging. **Contempt is different from criticism or anger.** It communicates that your partner is fundamentally unworthy of respect, not just that you're unhappy about something they did. **The Four Horsemen often appear together.** Criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling tend to reinforce each other in a destructive cycle. **Other factors matter too.** Age at marriage, financial stress, parental divorce, and value differences are all associated with divorce risk, though none guarantee a particular outcome. **Patterns can be changed with commitment.** Couples who both want to improve can learn healthier communication, often with professional help. **One person can't fix a relationship alone.** If your partner won't acknowledge problems or work on change, your options are limited. **Understanding patterns helps even when divorcing.** Recognizing destructive communication can help you handle the divorce process more constructively and improve co-parenting. **These are predictors, not destinies.** Statistical patterns don't determine what will happen in your specific relationship. ### Disclaimer This article provides general information about relationship research and divorce. It is not legal advice, relationship counselling, or mental health treatment. Research findings describe patterns across large groups and cannot predict outcomes for individual relationships. If you're struggling with your relationship or considering separation, consider speaking with a qualified therapist, counsellor, or family law professional about your specific situation.